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[Image] GFOA Public Investor

April 1, 2005


Volume 23, Number 4

Inside This Issue

The Art and Science of Fair Value Pricing

The New Worry: ACH Fraud

Performance Benchmarks

Panel of Economists

Databank

Interest Rate Outlook


The Art and Science of Fair Value Pricing

By John Ariola, CPA

S ince the release of GASB Statement No. 31, Accounting and Financial Reporting for Certain Investments and for External Investment Pools, governments have been encouraged to report investments at fair value in the balance sheet (or other statement of financial position). The impetus for fair value pricing has been the growing consensus that fair value offers a better gauge of an entity's investments than cost. Fair value is generally defined as the amount at which a financial instrument could be exchanged in a current transaction between willing parties, other than in a forced or liquidation sale.

Incorporating fair value into the reporting model provides users with better information to measure a government's accountability as well as the level of future services it can provide to its constituents. But is fair value pricing an art or a science? Where do the valuations come from? Who is responsible for providing them? And most importantly, how are they done? This article will address those questions.

Stakeholders. Fair value pricing has been a popular subject in the fixed income arena for many years. A quick look at the various stakeholders and underlying business incentives tied to its existence should give an idea of the wide-ranging implications that it can have:

  • public-sector investors rely on it to properly report the resources available for services and help determine an entity's ability to meet certain obligations;
  • investment advisors and their portfolio managers use fair value pricing in reporting total managed assets and in calculating advisory fee compensation;
  • independent auditors are tuned into pricing when assessing the accuracy and reliability of the government-wide financial statements;
  • bankers and custodians use fair value to determine custody fees and make adjustments to certain debt agreements; and
  • third-party pricing vendors like FT Interactive and J.J. Kenny make their living on disseminating these important valuations to the thousands of investment houses throughout the world.

Impact. Generally, fair value pricing is determined by the most recent market trade for any particular security. Given the lack of significant trading in taxable fixed income securities, however, almost anyone can see why valuation estimates can be so crucial. To begin with, fair value pricing helps determine whether an investor receives a right price for a security being purchased. Without an appropriate valuation, market participants will be unable to measure their own exposure properly and may make decisions that can later be detrimental. Accurate pricing can help potential investors assess a risk level or volatility gauge of an investment and provide a clearer indication of the asset's ability to pay off as expected. Otherwise, the transfer of risk could be harder to measure—leading to possible overstatement of capital positions and a longer delay in implementing any corrective action.

In addition, fair value will have a significant impact on performance measurement when reporting total return and thus affecting a manager's future compensation levels in the form of bonuses or other incentives. Adjustments in market valuation estimates can affect collateral levels in most repurchase agreements as well as required reporting to outside regulators.

How Is It Done? Fair value serves as a proxy for market values and can be as simple as the estimated price of a security that any investor may expect to receive upon its current sale. Ascertaining fair value requires a determination of the amount that an arm's length buyer would currently pay for the security, and should not be based upon some future assumption of true value. For liquid securities, such as Treasury bills or actively traded equities, the fair value is often linked to the price on the most recent trade. In the event of a trading halt or significant pending news, the last recorded transaction will serve as the beginning value for the expected new price.

Most fixed income securities will not trade as frequently as Treasuries, however, and in these cases pricing is routinely generated by the use of pricing models. Presently, most evaluations are produced using a daily snapshot of yield curves in conjunction with closing futures prices. As the markets continue to become more sophisticated, however, these models tend to become more complex. Different techniques—ranging from the traditional yield-to-maturity approach to the option-adjusted spread model—have been utilized to determine the valuations.

Fixed income securities are typically divided into two components of cash flow—the stated coupon and the principal payments. The stream of income over the life of the investment is normally discounted by some market rate. The sum of all of the discounted cash flows determines the fair value price of the security.

An example follows: On March 15, 2004, an investor holds a $1,000,000 FNMA 7.125 percent, due March 15, 2007. The note will make annual interest payments (cash flows) of $71,250 along with a final principal payment of $1,000,000 at maturity in March 2007. The cash flows from owning this bond are as follows:

  • March 2005
  • $71,250
  • March 2006 
  • $71,250
  • March 2007
  • $1,071,250

    In order to determine the fair market value of this stream of cash flows, we need to look at the return provided by similar securities, known as the market rate, and discount the prospective stream of cash flows using that rate. If we use 2.35 percent as the assumed market discount rate, we get a market value of $1,136,770, or a fair value price of 113.677.

    Exhibit 1: Sample Calculation for Fair Value Pricing
    FMV= Cash Flow (1 + rate)1    
    FMV=

    $71,250
    (1 + rate)

    +
    $71,250
    (1 + rate)2
    +
    1,071,250
    (1 + rate)3
    FMV= $71,250
    (1.0235)
    +
    $71,250
    (1.0235)2
    +
    1,071,250
    (1.0235)3
    FMV= $1,136,770        

    Although this practice may sound straightforward, there are several different variables which warrant consideration in the overall analysis, the most important one being the actual discount rate applied to the future cash flows. Some may use a single factor over the life of the bond, while others may consider unique factors for each specific cash flow. How do we determine these factors? Should they be adjusted for any known credit risk or liquidity concerns? Other variables include expected changes in interest rates, public commentary from large financial institutions, government actions or edicts, tax implications, as well as other news events.

    Who Is Responsible for Pricing? The increase in electronic trading and order routing systems has already rapidly improved price transparency in the fixed income market. These systems have allowed pricing data to be disseminated more widely to users, third-party vendors, and the marketplace as a whole. Some firms employ valuation committees and charge them with setting proper controls to promote accuracy in valuation. These committees are granted oversight responsibility of the entire pricing process and will implement certain checks and balances to ensure that instruments are marked correctly.

    Other entities will rely on independent pricing services to deliver the information in a timely and efficient manner. Pricing services generally have a more formalized structure, since they are accountable to a wider range of clients. They have a stronger ability to monitor outside events and have formal relationships with auditors and regulators around the world. In general, despite the complexity and judgment that goes into pricing of securities, there is a great degree of convergence between different pricing services, an indicator of data reliability.

    In conclusion, it should be evident that pricing is certainly more of an art than a science. It can have a significant impact on the marketplace and on all participants within that marketplace, including the management, measurement and transfer of risk. There are several stakeholders tied to its existence, thus driving the need for a solid framework for valuation procedures.

    John Ariola, CPA, is Vice President, Accounting and Reporting for MBIA Asset Management Group.


    The New Worry: ACH Fraud

    As more governments take and make payments electronically, the spotlight on payment fraud has shifted toward the Automated Clearing House (ACH) network. Last year alone, ACH volume grew 21 percent, an increase of 1.6 billion payments in 2004, while the five ACH “e-Check” applications increased 112 percent. The e-Check applications, ARC (lockbox), TEL, WEB, POP (Point of Purchase), and RCK (NSF checks), combined for more than 2 billion payments in 2004.

    Exhibit 1: 2004 ACH Network Transactions
    Type
    2004
    2003
    % Change
    ARC
    941,685,523
    160,022,802
    488%
     
    CCD Debits
    418,528,922
    377,671,883
    10
     
    CCD Credits
    923,313,827
    836,964,637
    10
     
    CCD +
    132,076,574
    111,866,308
    18
     
    CIE
    86,918,853
    76,183,528
    14
     
    CTX
    29,403,538
    24,255,150
    21
     
    CTX Addenda
    460,677,330
    372,005,549
    23
     
    POP
    162,297,527
    148,021,717
    9
     
    PPD Debits
    2,186,777,138
    2,014,304,035
    8
     
    PPD Credits
    3,356,861,963
    3,155,184,173
    6
     
    RCK
    23,862,095
    22,760,950
    4
     
    TEL
    187,697,664
    123,818,872
    51
     
    WEB
    714,972,101
    500,555,135
    42
     
    Total Network
    9,125,302,461 
    7,531,606,041
    21%
     
    Note: Figures do not include on-us volumes

    How many of these transactions are fraudulent or considered unauthorized? According to NACHA, in 2004 3.27 million ACH debits were returned unauthorized. The number of unauthorized ACH debits in the first quarter of 2004 was 765,000, which is up 68.5 percent over the same period in 2001. At the current rate there will be 4.65 million unauthorized debits in the ACH network by 2006. Listed below is a brief description of each e-check application (which can only be executed for consumer accounts).

    • ARC—A single-entry (non-recurring) debit initiated by an originator (government) to a consumer account of the receiver pursuant to a document (check) provided to the originator by the receiver, after the receiver has been notified.
    • TEL—A single-entry debit initiated by an originator (who has a relationship with the receiver) or receiver via telephone; authorization is either recorded orally or by written notice.
    • WEB—A single entry or recurring entry initiated by the originator via the Internet, pursuant to the authorization obtained from the receiver via a secure Internet session.
    • POP—A single-entry debit initiated by merchants for over-the-counter purchases of goods and services, using the consumer's check as a source document. The check is stamped “Void” and handed back to the consumer and the consumer signs an authorization.
    • RCK—A single-entry debit initiated for the purpose of collecting a consumer check that has been returned for insufficient funds.

    Unauthorized versus Fraudulent. An unauthorized transaction occurs when the customer advises their bank that this transaction was not authorized. Such a transaction occurs because the originator has not been authorized to debit the account. Just because the transaction is returned unauthorized does not necessarily mean that it is fraudulent. An unauthorized transaction can also occur when the dollar amount or date changes on a consumer debit and the consumer is not notified.

    In the e-check environment, an unauthorized transaction can mean that no notice was provided regarding conversion of the check, regardless of whether or not it was posted at the point of sale or in their bill. If the customer claims they did not see the notice, it can be returned unauthorized. A transaction may also be returned unauthorized if it is for an incorrect dollar amount or it is an ineligible item (i.e., a corporate check, a home equity check, or a cashiers check, etc.). If it is a consumer transaction, the consumer has 60 days from the date it posted to their account to request that the receiving bank return the transaction as unauthorized.

    How Does ACH Fraud Occur? ACH fraud is more likely to occur with WEB and TEL transactions. In a WEB or TEL transaction, you have to be able to identify or authenticate the person authorizing the transaction. In this type of transaction where there is no authentication or account numbers are stolen, the entry may be returned unauthorized. In a POP (Point of Purchase) transaction, again, the checks may be stolen, or consumer checks might be created using stolen corporate account numbers and presented for payment. Unlike a normal government transaction (i.e., a CCD, CTX or CBR) where the government customer must request the return of an unauthorized transaction within 24 hours, if a government has a WEB, TEL, POP, ARC, RCK or PPD transaction post to its account and the transaction is unauthorized, they would have 60 days from the settlement date of the original entry to return it as unauthorized (because the return time period is based on the type of transaction, not on whether it is a government or consumer account).

    ACH fraud can also be perpetrated internally. Internal fraud occurs when an employee creates fraudulent files or steals account numbers and resells them at which point they enter the ACH network as fraudulent activity. Employee fraud is not only on the debit side of the transaction. It can also occur on the credit side for payroll or in a cash concentration environment. To prevent this type of fraud, dual controls are imperative, as is establishing file limits. According to the NACHA rules, an originating bank must set exposure limits and file limits as well as establish security procedures. A government can also reduce the possibility of fraud by accessing and verifying their account information on a daily basis via Positive Pay or online banking. Finally, if you use a third-party processor, make sure that the processor is executing transactions in accordance with the NACHA rules and that all necessary agreements are in place.

    ACH Fraud versus Check Fraud. The American Bankers Association reported that check fraud in 2003 totaled more than $6 billion dollars and actual losses were more than $900 million. Any time you take a check and convert that check into the electronic environment, the fraud is apt to move with it.

    While no comparable dollar figures are available for ACH fraud, in 2004 the overall return rate for unauthorized ACH transactions was 0.06 percent. Certain types of ACH transactions exceeded the overall rate, such as TEL debits at 0.19 percent, indicative of fraud.

    Recently, the Fed released a proposal to amend Regulation CC by setting forth rules governing remotely created drafts (i.e., pre-authorized drafts). In place of a signature, a remotely created check bears a statement that the customer authorized the check or bears the customer’s printed or typed name. To reduce the potential of fraud, the amendments to Regulation CC would create transfer and presentment warranties to the depository bank. This means that, if a consumer or a government was to receive such an item, they would have extended timeframes to return it.

    In order to reduce and prevent ACH fraud, NACHA is taking steps to address these issues. NACHA has developed workgroups and task forces and is in the process of developing rules to reduce the amount of unauthorized activity through the network.

    Mary Gilmeister is President, WACHA—The Premier Payments Resource.


    Panel of Economists

    A Goldilocks Economy Again?

    In the late 1990s, some economists described the era of moderate growth and low inflation as a “Goldilocks” economy because growth was neither too fast nor too slow. With some pundits beginning to describe the current economy as achieving a similar balance, Public Investor asked its panel of economists if the U.S. economy is now in a "Goldilocks" phase, where growth and inflation is neither “too hot” nor “too cold” but “just right.”

    Lacy Hunt states that the current business conditions are doing well, but the underlying fundamentals of the economy are deteriorating. He highlights several forward-looking indicators that suggest that economic growth will be considerably weaker later in the year. The growth in the money supply has slowed to an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the past three months, which is far below the long-term trend line of 6.7 percent. The rate of growth in home equity loans has slowed to a growth rate of less than 15 percent, and mortgage applications have fallen. In addition, the yield curve has flattened dramatically. In general, a flat yield curve is a sign that investors expect economic growth and inflation to slow in future months.

    Carl Tannenbaum states that the economy is showing stronger growth than expected and somewhat higher price pressures. He points out that, although this is not fully a “Goldilocks” economy, the levels of growth and inflation are still reasonable.

    RGM Top

    Databank Analysis

    Employment, Economy Strengthening

    Recent economic data show signs of strong growth. Non-farm payroll employment grew by 262,000 jobs in February, which was the strongest increase in five months. The latest Fed “Beige Book” reports that economic activity increased throughout the U.S.

    Looking ahead, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia predicts that real GDP growth will average 3.6 percent in 2005 and 3.4 percent in 2006. The forecasters predict that the unemployment rate will decline from 5.2 percent in 2005 to 5.0 percent in 2006. At the same time, the survey predicts that CPI inflation will average 2.3 percent in 2005 and 2006.

    RGM

    Databank
     

    Current
    Period

    Previous
    Period

    Year
    Ago

    Economic Growth      
    Real GDP growth IV Q '04 III Q '04 Year Ago
    Annual rate, constant dollars 3.8 4.0 4.2

    Retail sales

    Feb Jan Year Ago
    $ billions 352.14 350.37 326.88
    Industrial production index Feb Jan 12 mo. chg.
    Change, monthly and annually 0.3% 0.1% 3.5%
    Leading indicators index Feb Jan 12 mo. chg.
    Change, monthly and annually 0.0% 0.2% 0.4%
    New housing starts Feb Jan Year Ago
    Thousands of units, annualized 2,195 2,183 1,895
    Purchasing Management Index Feb Jan Year Ago
    Nati'l. Assoc. of Purchasing Management 55.3 56.4 62.1
    Inflation      

    Consumer price index

    Feb Jan 12 mo. chg.
    Change, monthly and annually 0.4% 0.1% 2.9%

    Producer price index

    Feb Jan 12 mo. chg.

    Change, monthly and annually, seasonally adjusted

    0.4 0.3 4.7
    GDP price deflator IV Q '04 III Q '04 Year Ago
    Annual rate 2.1 1.4 1.6
    Unemployment rate Feb Jan Year Ago
    BLS 5.4 5.2 5.6
    Other      
    Money market fund maturities Mar 15 Feb 22 Mar '04
    Average portfolio maturity
    (Money Fund Report Averages TM)
    37 days 36 days 56 days

    Interest Rate Analysis

    Fed Does It Again

    As expected, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent in late March. So far, the Fed has raised rates 175 basis points since it began a tightening cycle in June of last year. The Fed Funds futures market predicts that the Fed Funds rate will rise to 4.00 percent by the end of the year. Fed watchers expect that the Fed will continue tightening until the Fed funds rate is at a more “neutral” level that neither stimulates nor slows economic growth.

    The most recent Survey of Professional Forecasters predicts that the three-month Treasury bill will increase to 3.2 percent by the third quarter of 2005, and 3.7 percent by the first quarter of 2006. The Survey predicts that the 10-year Treasury bond will increase to 4.7 percent by the third quarter of 2005, and 5.1 percent by the first quarter of 2006.

    RGM

    Interest Rate Outlook
    The Public Investor's panel of eminent institutional economists projects interest rates for the first day of each forecast month. Averages are the midpoints between the arithmetic mean and the median of individual projections. The low and high individual forecasts illustrate the range.

    Rate

    May-05
    Average
    (Low-High)

    July-05
    Average
    (Low-High)
    October-05
    Average
    (Low-High)
    Fed Funds
    2.8
    3.3

    3.5

     
    2 3/4 - 2 3/4
    3 1/4- 3 1/4
    3 1/2- 3 1/2
    30-day prime bank (CD)
    1.8
    2.3
    2.5
     
    1 3/4 - 1 3/4
    2 1/4 - 2 1/4
    2 1/2 - 2 1/2
    3-month T-bill yield
    3.0
    3.3
    3.7
     
    3 - 3
    3 1/4 - 3 1/4
    3 5/8 - 3 5/8
    5-year Treasury note
    4.0
    4.2
    4.4
     
    4 - 4
    4 1/4 - 4 1/4
    4 3/8 - 4 3/8
    30-year Treasury bond
    4.8
    5.8
    5.2
     
    4 3/4 - 4 3/4
    5 - 5
    5 1/4 - 5 1/4
    Consensus Index*
    100%
    100%
    100%
    *Consensus index is the percentage of responses within 75 basis points (0.75 percent) of the average interest rate. Index measures the extent of panelists' agreement. If all forecasts are with 3/4 percent of the various averages for a given month, the consensus would be 100. If all responses fall at the extreme ends of a wide range, the index is 0.

    Interest rate forecast panelists

    Carl R. Tannenbaum

    LaSalle Bank ABN/Amro


    Performance Benchmarks

    Public Investor Performance Indexes
    The Public Investor 10-bill index
     

    Quarterly/Monthly
    Return

    Annualized Returns Since
     
    Index
    Annualized
    Jan.1, 2004
    Jan. 1, 2003
    Jan. 1, 2004 276.6328

    1.0% (M)

    1.1% 1.4%
    Jan. 1, 2005 280.0364

    1.9% (Q)

    1.2% 1.2%
    Mar. 1, 2005 280.9284r

    1.8% (M)r

    1.3% 1.2%
    April 1, 2005 281.5380 2.6% (M)
    2.2%(Q)
    1.3% 1.2%
    The Public Investor 10-bill index consists of 10 hypothetical Treasury bill investments, with an average maturity of approximately 80 days. Every other Thursday, a T-bill matures and proceeds are reinvested alternately in the three-month and six month T-bills. This rolling index provides a benchmark for evaluating cash management portfolios with biweekly payment and payroll requirements. The original value of the index was 97.6765 on July 1, 1984.
    The money market fund index
     
    Annualized Returns Since
      Average Return Jan. 1, 2004 Jan. 1, 2003
    Jan. 1, 2004 0.5% 0.67% 1.61%
    Jan. 1, 2005 1.5% 0.76% 0.82%
    Mar. 1, 2005 1.8% 0.88% 0.85%
    April 1, 2005 1.9% 0.95% 0.87%
    The money market fund index is the simple average of Money Fund Report Averages ™ seven-day money market fund indexes, as reported for the two weeks closest to the end of each month. The annualized return is calculated using these rates for a four-week period centering on the first of each month. The results should simulate returns from passive investment in an average money market fund.
    S&P Rated LGIP Index (March 18, 2005)
    7-day yield
    30-day yield
    Maturity (days)
    2.32%
    2.29%
    36
    This index is comprised of local government investment pools that are rated AAAm or AAm by Standard & Poor's and represents pools that strive to maintain a stable net asset value.
    Key Rates: Cash Markets
    Rate 3/25/05 Year Ago
    Fed funds 2.76 1.01
    CDs: Three months 3.03 1.04
    CDs: Six months 3.33 1.06
    BAs: One month 2.79 1.01
    T-bills: 91-day yield 2.80 0.93
    T-bills: 52-week yield 3.41 1.15
    2Commercial paper, dealer-placed, 3 months 3.00 1.03
    Bond Buyer 20-bond municipal index 4.63 4.41
    Tax-exempt notes 2.55 1.03

    Moving Averages

    6-Month Treasury Bill

    2-Year Treasury Note

    30-Year Treasury Bond

    Public Investor’s four-week moving averages are calculated as a simple average of Friday closing yield quotations for the most recently offered six-month Treasury bill (discount basis), two-year Treasury note, and 30-year Treasury bond. Moving averages are used by analysts to monitor trends and trend changes. Generally, interest rates are increasing (prices falling) when the moving average yield is rising and the current rate exceeds the moving average. Conversely, current yields below a declining moving average are associated with lower interest rates (high prices on fixed-income securities). Some market timers buy (or sell) longer maturities when current market yields fall below (or penetrate above) their moving averages.


    Executive Director/CEO Jeffrey Esser
    Editor Nick Greifer
    Contributing Staff R. Gregory Michel

    The Public Investor is published monthly by the Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA), 203 N. LaSalle Street, Suite 2700, Chicago, IL 60601. (312/977-9700; email: PublicInvestor@gfoa.org) Annual subscription rates are $55 for active GFOA members, $70 for associate GFOA members, and $85 for nonmembers. For reprint permission contact GFOA.

    The information and opinions printed herein are from sources believed to be reliable, but GFOA makes no guarantee of accuracy. Opinions, forecasts and recommendations are offered by individuals and do not represent official GFOA policy positions. Nothing herein should be construed as a specific recommendation to buy or sell a financial security.

    Government Finance Officers Association of the United States and Canada
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