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September 3, 2004
Volume 22, Number 9
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| Inside This Issue |
The Rewarded Risks of One- to Three-Year Investments
Legislation Expands Use of CDARS for Investment Risk Management
Performance Benchmarks
Panel of Economists
Databank
Interest Rate Outlook
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The Rewarded Risks of One- to Three-Year Investments
By Michelle Saddler
It is a longstanding premise of the GFOA and finance officers that long-term diversification is the surest way to achieve a market rate of return over time. “Speculating” on which segments of the market will outperform others is an exercise that requires a great deal of time and produces questionable if not unsatisfactory results.
These things being said, as interest rates rise, market timers will shorten the duration of their portfolios to avoid market risk. Even investors who do not view themselves as market timers may be tempted to adopt a duration-shortening posture to avoid market risk. Then, as interest rates decrease, market timers typically will extend maturities to take advantage of increasing bond prices.
Both theory and historic evidence suggest, however, that investors benefit from having a diversified portfolio and having at least a portion of it in slightly longer-term investments—throughout all interest rate environments.
What Action Should Public Investors Take Now? As noted, GFOA discourages market timing as an investment strategy and instead advocates longer-term asset allocation as the single most important determinant of a portfolio's investment performance. Now that the Federal Open Market Committee has taken two steps to “tighten” (increase) interest rates, how should public investors best prepare their portfolios for continued rising interest rates?
Since rising rates may have a negative impact on bonds in the short-term, should investors shorten their portfolios or move all of their funds to cash? On the contrary, if your community's portfolio is already well diversified across instruments and maturities and is well suited to your community's goals, cash flow horizons, and risk constraints, then the best option is simply to adhere to your asset allocation strategy and resist the temptation to try to time the market. Governments that value well-diversified portfolios will do well to review long-term historic studies about the benefits of diversification over time.
Despite the short-term negative impact that rising interest rates may have on fixed income securities, public investors who over time modestly extend investment maturities receive greater compensation than by using money market instruments. Working with The Consulting Group of Smith Barney, the Illinois Metropolitan Investment Fund (IMET) highlights a 25-year study (see Exhibit 1) showing that the greatest marginal increase in yield—with the smallest downside risk during rising rate environments—is gained by extending maturities to the one- to three-year horizon.
Historical Analysis. Overall, we find that the one- to three-year area is the sector in the bond market which stands to benefit significantly from both stable and down-trending interest rate environments, yet suffers the least from upswings in interest rates. Over a 15-year and even a 25-year history, investors experience gains of up to two full percentage points (the greatest marginal increases) in enhanced return—with the smallest downside during rising rate environments—by extending maturities to the one- to three-year horizon. (See Marginal Increase columns in Exhibit 1.)

15-Year History. As an investor extends maturities from money market instruments into investments with longer maturities, the investor will add risk to the portfolio in the form of months with negative returns. By extending from Treasury bills into one- to three-year investments, Exhibit 2 shows that investors experienced 26 negative months and 154 positive months over the past 15 years. Nonetheless, as we look at quarterly and even yearly returns, we see that the investor gains yield while assuming the least amount of risk by diversifying into the one- to three-year area.

By examining the slightly longer timeframe of calendar year quarters, the investor in this same 15-year period experienced only three negative quarters and 57 positive quarters. If we ask whether the investor experienced any years with negative returns, we find that the answer is no. In fact, the money market and one- to three-year horizons are the only ones in which no negative years have been experienced. We conclude that, while experiencing months with negative returns brings discomfort, the longer-term results show that the risk/reward relationship brings enhancement to the portfolio.
25-Year History. Finance directors with a longer tenure in the field may remember that interest rates have generally fallen during the last 20 years, but that interest rates generally rose for the 30 years prior to 1981. To incorporate a sharply rising rate environment in our study, we also ran the numbers for a 25-year period. This period incorporates some of the most rapidly rising historic interest rate environments; it in fact includes the periods of greatest risk for one- to three-year investments.
During the past 25 years, investors experienced 47 months with negative returns for one- to three-year investments, and yet they experienced 253 months with positive returns. (See Exhibit 3.) When we examine calendar-year quarters rather than months, we find that there were only five quarters with negative returns and 95 positive quarters. Most gratifying is the fact that even over the past 25 years, the greatest marginal increase is obtained by extending out to the one- to three-year horizon, while—again—there has been not a single year in which one- to three-year investments have produced a negative return. The very worst 12-month period, for the past 25 years, still has resulted in a positive return.

Conclusion. Investors who extend a portion of their portfolios may conclude that, although there will be times when there will be a short-term opportunity cost, maintaining diversification into the one- to three-year sector continues to be a prudent and beneficial asset allocation decision.
Additional details of this study, including “best” and “worst” historic performance for money market instruments and longer-alternatives, are available from IMET.
Michelle R. B. Saddler is the Executive Director of the Illinois Metropolitan Investment Fund (IMET), a triple-A rated, one- to three-year local government investment pool. She is a former manager with the GFOA and is a member of GFOA's Cash Management Committee. Please call Michelle Saddler at 847/296-9200, ext. 38 for further information.
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Legislation Expands Use of CDARS for Investment Risk Management
By Mark Jacobsen
An increasing number of governments now have a means of protecting deposits in excess of the $100,000 FDIC limit—without collateralizing those deposits or using a portfolio of depositories. During the first eight months of 2004, several states have opened the door for local governments by passing enabling legislation and adopting legal clarifications.
Through a new service called the Certificate of Deposit Account Registry Service®, or CDARS® (pronounced “cedars”), banks can offer their customers up to $5 million in federal deposit insurance coverage on deposits placed through one bank. For government finance officers, CDARS offers the safety of FDIC insurance with the convenience of one rate, one regular statement, and one banking relationship. Equally important, in most states, FDIC-insured deposits do not require collateralization.
CDARS can be used for CDs with 4-, 26-, 52-, 104- and 156-week maturities. CDARS would not apply to overnight investments.
How CDARS Works. Members of Promontory Interfinancial Network—a network of FDIC-insured institutions—allocate a customer’s deposit (in the form of CDs) among several network banks so that all funds are eligible to be insured by the full faith and backing of the federal government. (Technically, deposits placed through CDARS meet the pass-through insurance coverage guidelines established by the FDIC.)
For example, suppose a city needs to invest $1 million. The city uses a competitive bidding process to obtain rates from several local banks. Because the winning bidder is a member of the CDARS network, the city is able to deposit the entire amount with full FDIC insurance coverage through the winning bank. The money is divided into amounts less than $100,000 and placed in CDs issued by other network members through CDARS. The city receives regular consolidated interest payments and statements from the bank showing the account activity for each CD held in its name. In addition, the bank receives funds from other network members' customers totaling the amount deposited by the city.
The 550-plus banks that comprise the CDARS network exchange deposits on a dollar-for-dollar basis. In other words, the amount of money a bank places using the CDARS service returns to that bank in the form of customer money from other network members. These reciprocal deposits among banks usually qualify funds placed using CDARS as “local,” a requirement of many government investment policies. At the end of the day, the bank has the deposit on its books that can be used for community lending purposes.
Depositors do not pay to use the CDARS service; the rate of CDs placed through CDARS is negotiated like any other CD.
CDARS Benefits. Almost all states have enacted statutes that require public deposits in excess of the FDIC's $100,000 limit to be secured by pledged collateral securities from depository institutions.
Before CDARS, the drawback of obtaining FDIC insurance for finance officers was the limit of $100,000 per depositor, per institution. Even so, many governments choose to spread their deposits among dozens of banks rather than deal with the inconveniences of monitoring and managing collateral.
Because CD deposits placed using CDARS are eligible for full FDIC insurance coverage, governments investing through CDARS are not required to track collateralized assets and constantly mark-to-market the prices of Treasury bills and other pledged assets, which makes investing easier and less time-consuming. For government cash managers, this means not having to deal with multiple banks, rate renegotiations, and collateral monitoring.
Because statutory requirements for the investment of public funds vary from state to state, governments must make sure that CDARS qualifies as an appropriate investment tool. Some may need to update their investment policies to permit the use of this new service.
Legislative Status. Last month, Illinois became the fifth state in 2004 to enact legislation to enable finance officers to invest through the CDARS service. The legislation in Illinois was an initiative of the Community Bankers Association of Illinois. Missouri, Colorado, Nebraska, and South Dakota enacted similar legislation earlier in the year, and bankers in other states worked for passage of legislation, as well. Under these 2004 enactments, government finance officers may invest public funds through CDARS only by placing the funds through a CDARS-participating bank located within the state.
Also during this year, Kansas, New Hampshire, and Hawaii through legal interpretation enabled governments to use CDARS.
Finance officers in Alaska, Connecticut, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, and possibly a few other states have been able to use CDARS for investment of public money under existing authority. No legislation was required in these states for local governments to use the CDARS service.
Efforts led by bankers and their associations are underway to obtain legislative or interpretative clarifications in virtually all of the remaining states. (The network has members in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico).
Deposits from public units accounted for 25 percent of Promontory's transaction volume, based on recent statistics.
Conclusion. For local finance officers, collateralization of deposits has proven to be a generally effective protection against bank failures, but collateralization imposes a significant administrative burden on them. CDARS offers a convenient alternative to collateralization by expanding access to Federal deposit insurance to up to $5 million of coverage. 2004 legislation will significantly expand this alternative to more localities across the United States.
Mark Jacobsen is president and chief operating officer of Promontory Interfinancial Network. For more information about CDARS, please contact Promontory at either contact@promnetwork.com or 866/776-6426.
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Panel of Economists
Health Care Costs Slow Employment Growth
Despite three years of economic growth, growth in employment continues to be sluggish. Public Investor asked its panel of economists if rising health care costs are restraining employment, and what are the main factors behind the slow growth in employment.
Carl Tannenbaum states that rising health care costs are a definite impediment to full-time hiring. Another key contributor to the slow growth in employment is very strong productivity growth.
Lacy Hunt highlights three factors that have caused the slow growth in employment. The first factor is the “bubble” economy of the late 1990s that resulted in excessive investment in plant, equipment and office buildings. The second factor is a large inflow of lower priced imported goods due to excessive over-investment in foreign capacity combined with poor demand in foreign countries. The third factor is the unprecedented type of uncertainty and caution due to the threat of terrorism. This uncertainty has directly damaged the tourism industry, which, in the past, has contributed significantly to employment growth.
John Silvia states that a rise in the relative cost of labor to the cost of capital has slowed employment growth. Rising health care costs have increased the cost of labor, while depreciation has lowered the cost of capital. Neal Soss agrees that rising health care costs are part of the story behind the slow growth in employment. Other “parts of the story” are the continuing adjustment of corporate leadership to the crises in corporate governance, and the oil price shock, which has reduced the willingness of businesses to increase employment.
RGM
Databank Analysis
Growth May Be Slower Than Expected
New data suggest that the economic recovery may be growing at a slower pace, caused in part by high oil prices. In the most recent Survey of Professional Forecasters, conducted by the Philadelphia Fed, forecasters reduced their forecasts of economic growth from three months ago. The current survey predicts that the GDP will grow at a rate of about 3.8 percent for the second half of this year (down from 4.1 percent), and an average rate of 3.7 percent next year (down from 3.9 percent).
The forecasters also see higher inflation than they did three months ago. The forecasters revised their forecast of CPI inflation from 2.7 percent to 3.4 percent for the fourth quarter of 2004. The forecasters kept their forecasts for unemployment at an average rate of 5.5 percent for this year and 5.3 percent for next year.
RGM
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Current
Period |
Previous
Period |
Year
Ago |
| Economic Growth |
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| Real GDP growth |
II Q '04 |
I Q '04 |
Year Ago |
| Annual rate, constant dollars |
2.8 |
4.5 |
4.1 |
Retail sales |
July |
June |
Year Ago |
| $ billions |
336.50 |
334.20 |
315.862 |
| Industrial production index |
July |
June |
12 mo. chg. |
| Change, monthly and annually |
0.4% |
-0.5% |
4.9% |
| Leading indicators index |
July |
June |
12 mo. chg. |
| Change, monthly and annually |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
3.1% |
| New housing starts |
July |
June |
Year Ago |
| Thousands of units, annualized |
1,978 |
1,826 |
1,893 |
| Purchasing Management Index |
July |
June |
Year Ago |
| Nati'l. Assoc. of Purchasing Management |
62.0 |
61.1 |
52.6 |
Inflation |
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Consumer price index |
July |
June |
12 mo. chg. |
| Change, monthly and annually |
-0.1% |
0.3% |
3.0% |
Producer price index |
July |
June |
12 mo. chg. |
Change, monthly and annually, seasonally adjusted |
0.1 |
-0.3 |
4.0 |
| GDP price deflator |
II Q '04 |
I Q '04 |
Year Ago |
| Annual rate |
3.2 |
2.8 |
1.1 |
| Unemployment rate |
July |
June |
Year Ago |
| BLS |
5.5 |
5.6 |
6.2 |
| Other |
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| Money market fund maturities |
Aug 24 |
July 20 |
Aug '03 |
| Average portfolio maturity |
43 days |
46 days |
57 days |
| (Money Fund Report Averages TM) |
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Interest Rate Analysis
Fed Raises Rates Again
At its most recent meeting on August 10, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to raise the Fed funds rate 25 basis points to 1.5 percent. The Fed stated that “the economy appears poised to resume a stronger pace of expansion.” Many Fed watchers expect the Fed to raise rates to 2 percent by the end of 2004 and 3 percent by the end of 2005.
The most recent Survey of Professional Forecasters, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, predicts that the three-month Treasury bill will increase to 1.8 percent by the fourth quarter of 2004, and 2.9 percent by the third quarter of 2005, while the 10-year Treasury bond will increase to 4.8 percent by the fourth quarter of 2004, and then to 5.5 percent by the third quarter of 2005.
RGM
| The Public Investor's panel of eminent institutional economists projects interest rates for the first day of each forecast month. Averages are the midpoints between the arithemetic mean and the median of individual projections. The low and high individual forecasts illustrate the range. |
| Rate |
October-04
Average
(Low-High) |
December-04
Average
(Low-High) |
March-05
Average
(Low-High) |
| Fed Funds |
1.5 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
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1 1/2 - 1 3/4 |
1 3/4 - 2 |
2 1/4- 2 1/4 |
| 30-day prime bank (CD) |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
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1 1/4 - 1 7/8 |
1 1/2 - 2 1/8 |
2 - 2 3/8 |
| 3-month T-bill yield |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.6 |
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1 3/4 - 1 7/8 |
2 1/4 - 2 1/4 |
2 1/2 - 2 5/8 |
| 5-year Treasury note |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
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3 1/4 - 4 1/8 |
3 1/2 - 4 1/4 |
4 - 4 3/8 |
| 30-year Treasury bond |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
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4 3/4 - 5 1/4 |
5 - 5 1/4 |
5 1/8 - 5 5/8 |
| Consensus Index* |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| *Consensus index is the percentage of responses within 75 basis points (0.75 percent) of the average interest rate. Index measures the extent of panelists' agreement. If all forecasts are with 3/4 percent of the various averages for a given month, the consensus would be 100. If all responses fall at the extreme ends of a wide range, the index is 0. |
Interest rate forecast panelists
John Silvia
Neal Soss
Carl R. Tannenbaum |
Wachovia Securities
Credit Suisse First Boston
LaSalle National Bank |
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Performance Benchmarks |
Public Investor Performance Indexes |
| The Public Investor 10-bill index |
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Quarterly/Monthly
Return
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Annualized Returns Since |
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Index |
Annualized |
Jan.1, 2003 |
Jan. 1, 2002 |
| Jan. 1, 2003 |
273.6480 |
1.7% (Q) |
1.8% |
3.1% |
| Jan. 1, 2004 |
276.6328 |
1.0% (M)
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1.1% |
1.4% |
Aug. 1, 2004 |
278.0804r |
0.7% (M)
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1.0% |
1.3% |
| Sept. 1, 2004 |
278.4013 |
1.4% (M) |
1.0% |
1.3% |
| The Public Investor 10-bill index consists of 10 hypothetical Treasury bill investments, with an average maturity of approximately 80 days. Every other Thursday, a T-bill matures and proceeds are reinvested alternately in the three-month and six month T-bills. This rolling index provides a benchmark for evaluating cash management portfolios with biweekly payment and payroll requirements. The original value of the index was 97.6765 on July 1, 1984. |
| The money market fund index |
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Average Return |
Jan. 1, 2003 |
Jan. 1, 2002 |
| Jan. 1, 2003 |
1.0% |
1.36% |
3.52% |
| Jan. 1, 2004 |
0.5% |
0.67% |
1.61% |
| Aug. 1, 2004 |
0.7% |
0.63% |
1.39% |
| Sept. 1, 2004 |
0.8% |
0.63% |
1.37% |
| The money market fund index is the simple average of Money Fund Report Averages (TM) seven-day money market fund indexes, as reported for the two weeks closest to the end of each month. The annualized return is calculated using these rates for a four-week period centering on the first of each month. The results should simulate returns from passive investment in an average money market fund. |
S&P Rated LGIP Index (August 20, 2004) |
7-day yield |
30-day yield |
Maturity (days) |
1.24% |
1.17% |
45 |
| This index is comprised of local government investment pools that are rated AAAm or AAm by Standard & Poor's and represents pools that strive to maintain a stable net asset value. |
| Rate |
8/27/04 |
Year Ago |
| Fed funds |
1.52 |
1.02 |
| CDs: Three months |
1.70 |
1.09 |
| CDs: Six months |
1.90 |
1.14 |
| BAs: One month |
1.57 |
1.07 |
| T-bills: 91-day yield |
1.52 |
0.98 |
| T-bills: 52-week yield |
2.02 |
1.35 |
| 2Commercial paper, dealer-placed, 3 months |
1.70 |
1.07 |
| Bond Buyer 20-bond municipal index |
4.66 |
5.07 |
| Tax-exempt notes |
1.56 |
1.17 |
| 6-Month Treasury Bill |
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| 2-Year Treasury Note |
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| 30-Year Treasury Bond |
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| Public Investor’s four-week moving averages are calculated as a simple average of Friday closing yield quotations for the most recently offered six-month Treasury bill (discount basis), two-year Treasury note, and 30-year Treasury bond. Moving averages are used by analysts to monitor trends and trend changes. Generally, interest rates are increasing (prices falling) when the moving average yield is rising and the current rate exceeds the moving average. Conversely, current yields below a declining moving average are associated with lower interest rates (high prices on fixed-income securities). Some market timers buy (or sell) longer maturities when current market yields fall below (or penetrate above) their moving averages. |
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| Executive Director/CEO |
Jeffrey Esser |
| Editor |
Nick Greifer |
| Production Editor |
Karen Utterback |
| Contributing Staff |
R. Gregory Michel, Michael Compton, David Horton |
The Public Investor is published monthly by the Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA), 203 N. LaSalle Street, Suite 2700, Chicago, IL 60601. (312/977-9700; email: PublicInvestor@gfoa.org) Annual subscription rates are $55 for active GFOA members, $70 for associate GFOA members, and $85 for nonmembers. For reprint permission contact GFOA.
The information and opinions printed herein are from sources believed to be reliable, but GFOA makes no guarantee of accuracy. Opinions, forecasts and recommendations are offered by individuals and do not represent official GFOA policy positions. Nothing herein should be construed as a specific recommendation to buy or sell a financial security. |
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