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September 2, 2005
Volume 23, Number 8
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| Inside This Issue |
| Using Core and Non-Core Funds to Structure Portfolios
Will Katrina Be an Economic Hurricane?
The Latest in Banking: Remote Deposit Capture
Updated Investment Resources on GFOA Web Site
GFOA Treasury Training Scheduled for Fall
Performance Benchmarks
Panel of Economists
Databank
Interest Rate Outlook
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Using Core and Non-Core Funds to Structure Portfolios
Most state and local governments operate under restrictive investment policies that emphasize safety and liquidity before yield. In large part, such policies are designed to mitigate the government’s credit risk as well as interest rate or market risk. Despite the restrictions, government treasurers still have significant latitude in structuring their portfolios, particularly with respect to interest rate risk.
To gauge how state and local treasurers structure their portfolios, Public Investor surveyed current and former members of the GFOA Committee on Cash Management in August 2005. GFOA obtained responses from 26 committee members.
Survey Results. The survey results showed that most governments structure their short-term portfolios in one of two ways: they either create a single portfolio for all surplus funds or they segment into two or more portfolios.
Public Investor asked: Does your government divide its investment portfolio into two components: a “core” portfolio consisting of reserve funds not needed for immediate disbursement (more long-term in nature) and a liquidity or non-core portfolio needed for potential immediate disbursement? In response, 46 percent (12) of the committee members indicated they use a single consolidated portfolio for investment operations. The remaining 14 committee members assigned assets to two or more portfolios. Governments with three or more portfolios sometimes create a separate portfolio for construction or bond proceeds, kept separate from core and non-core funds. (See Exhibit 1.)
Exhibit 1: Investment Portfolio Structure |
As would be expected, the weighted average maturity (WAM) for core (reserve) portfolios was substantially longer than for non-core (liquidity) portfolios. How much longer? In nine of 13 cases, the reserve portfolio had a WAM more than three times as long as the liquidity dollars. Some governments had a WAM of 0 for their liquidity portfolio, reflecting their strategy of overnight investing.
Some governments expressed the amount of interest rate risk exposure in term of duration rather than WAM. For example, one government maintained a 24-month duration for the reserve portfolio versus a three-month duration for the liquidity portion.
In addition, GFOA asked those governments with two or more portfolios about asset size for reserve and liquidity funds. In nine out of 14 instances, core funds that were invested for longer periods were the larger investment portfolio.
Governments with multiple portfolios must decide about exactly how much to allocate to individual portfolios. In most cases, this decision is based upon a cash flow analysis—e.g., forecasting cash flows over a 12-month period to determine liquidity needs. However, some governments overlay the cash flow analysis with guidelines or rules of thumb; for example, maintaining liquidity of 10 percent of the operating budget for one government and 50 percent for another. To determine the reserve portfolio amount, one treasurer said she bases it upon the average of the lowest operating cash position in the preceding three years.
Public Investor also inquired about investment approaches taken for each portfolio. Some treasurers say they only vary the maturity profiles of the portfolio, while keeping other aspects of the investment program constant.
On the other hand, one government invested shorter-term moneys internally and used an external money manager for longer-term assets. The treasurer for the government explained his strategy:
- The liquidity portfolio (one-month WAM) is invested in a local government investment pool, a government money market fund, and commercial paper, typically of 90 days maturity or less. Commercial paper maturities are typically timed to projected cash flow requirements.
- The core monies (14-month WAM) represent longer-term funds that are managed by external investment advisors. The core portfolio is divided among two managers with different components: (a) agency mortgage pass-through securities (primarily adjustable rate), using the one-year Treasury as a benchmark, and (b) a traditional bond portfolio that includes agencies, corporates and asset-backed securities that has the Merrill Lynch 1-3 Government/Corporate index as the benchmark.
- Additionally, it maintains a medium-term portfolio (10-month WAM excluding one longer-term bond) invested by government staff, invested primarily in callable agencies as well as jumbo certificates of deposit, with a small portion in an investment trust that effectively is a short-term bond fund.
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Will Katrina Be an Economic Hurricane?
In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the inevitable damage assessment is being made not only by families, but by insurers and the financial markets as well. Public investors may even feel the impact because, unlike past natural disasters, the destructive hurricane has damaged an entire economic sector-—namely, the oil production industry based in the southern United States.
What will be the economic impacts? An obvious effect is a continuation of the trend of rising oil and gas prices. Gas and oil price increases observed over the past two years, while significant, have not tipped the economy into recession nor have they pushed prices near the peaks of the 1980s (on an inflation-adjusted basis).
The hurricane and flooding, however, are affecting other industries such as shipping and tourism. New Orleans, which is the nation’s fifth biggest city for large trade shows, will certainly experience a downturn in its tourism and convention business.
Despite the setbacks, the Wall Street Journal notes that five previous hurricanes, including Hurricane Andrew, had no significant effect on the macro-economy. For example, in the quarters preceding these disasters, economic growth averaged approximately 3.2 percent; during the quarter of the storms growth reached 3.4 percent; and in the quarter after, growth was 2.7 percent.
A secondary impact may be to halt or slow the continual Fed rate increases that have flattened the yield curve during the past 24 months. In next month’s issue of Public Investor, we will examine Katrina’s impact on Fed rate decisions.
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The Latest in Banking: Remote Deposit Capture
By Steven A. McArthur and Emily A. Herritz
On October 28, 2004, the Check Clearing for the 21st Century Act, or Check 21, took effect. Passed in large part due to the closing of U.S. airspace after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the goal of Check 21 legislation was to speed up the check clearing process and reduce its dependency on physical transportation.
Background. Under Check 21, financial institutions are able to truncate, or electronically process, checks at any point in the clearing process. Institutions can create a digital image of a check to be transmitted electronically to other institutions in the clearing process or reprinted as an Image Replacement Document (IRD), a legal substitute for the physical check. While financial institutions are not required to use this new technology, it is intended to foster innovation in the check clearing industry and enhance overall efficiency.
The first tangible service that has developed as a result of Check 21 is Remote Deposit Capture. With Remote Deposit Capture, public finance officials are able to make daily deposits from their offices. Images of checks are scanned using a desktop scanner, uploaded into bank application software or onto a bank Internet site, and then transmitted to the bank through a secure connection for deposit into the government’s account(s). (See Exhibit 1.) By using Remote Deposit Capture, governmental entities are afforded a greater level of flexibility and security in their banking options.
Exhibit 1: How Remote Deposit Capture Works |
Remote Check Deposit—Process |
- Scan deposit ticket or select an account number
- Declare deposit total
- Load checks in scanner and begin scanning process
- Deposit is confirmed against the declared amount and readied for transmission
- Transmission initiated and user is presented with confirmation of receipt by the bank
- Clearing via Substitute Check (IRD), Image Exchange, or ACH
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Implications. Banking relationships can be consolidated with one institution, offering added efficiencies and savings on fees. The risk and cost associated with transporting checks is eliminated because the checks have to go no further than the desktop scanner.
Governmental entities will also realize enhanced cash flow management, improved fund availability and an increased likelihood of detecting fraud due to the accelerated check clearing process. The faster a check is cleared, the faster funds are made available to the depositing unit and the quicker fraudulent checks can be detected and the authorities alerted.
Savings of both time and money will be realized as employees no longer need to travel back and forth between the office and the bank. Oftentimes, especially with smaller governments, doing the daily deposit means closing the office for a period of time in order to meet afternoon deposit cut-off times. Now, not only will governments not have to close the office, but most banking institutions using Remote Deposit Capture offer extended same-day deposit cut-off times, making the process even easier and more customer-focused. Those that do not see a large quantity of incoming checks and do not make daily deposits will see even more benefit from Remote Deposit Capture. They will now be able to deposit checks daily from their desks and have quicker access to those funds.
There are tangible cost savings that can be calculated to offset any initial fees that may be charged. Example: Employee X is paid $14/hour and spends 30 minutes per day taking the deposit to the bank. Annually, Employee X is paid $1,750 (assuming 250 days worked) simply to travel to the bank, stand in line, make the deposit, and travel back to the office. With Remote Deposit Capture, the employee would spend only 10 minutes per day depositing that day’s checks, resulting in a potential annual savings of $1,400 previously spent on banking (i.e., a reduction in staff costs or re-allocation to more valuable tasks).
Future of Remote Deposit Capture. A few questions remain and are currently being investigated. Remote Deposit Capture will make it harder to place a stop payment on a check due to its quick entry into the clearing process. The possibility also exists for checks to be processed twice—once from the digital image and then again from the IRD or by having the IRD printed more than once. Currently, this problem is small and the industry is working on developing systems specifically designed to address this issue.
As an increased number of transactions are now being conducted electronically, the area of Remote Deposit Capture will continue to grow. According to the Federal Reserve Board, paper checks have accounted for less than half of non-cash payments in the U.S. over the past several years, quickly being replaced by direct debit, Automated Clearing House (ACH), and credit/debit card payments. The industry and its customers seem intent on heading toward a more automated check clearing process with earlier check truncation and faster processing.
As this trend gains even more momentum, additional innovations will continue to emerge, resulting in faster, more accurate banking procedures. Inquire about Remote Deposit Capture to learn about the potential benefits if may offer to your government and implementation issues. You may find a way to reduce internal cash management costs, expedited cash flow, and improved security, all with one step.
Steven A. McArthur is vice president and treasury management sales manager at AMCORE Bank N.A. A graduate of the University of Colorado’s Graduate School of Banking, he is a Certified Cash Manager and serves as advisor to GFOA’s Committee on Cash Management. Emily A. Herritz is a commercial sales assistant in treasury management at AMCORE Bank N.A. She holds an undergraduate degree in accounting from Viterbo University.
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Updated Investment Resources on GFOA Web Site
GFOA has published on its Web site updated guidelines for investment managers. These include a sample investment policy for short-term portfolios and collateral agreements (short- and long-form versions) to protect bank deposits. These documents were developed and updated by the GFOA Committee on Cash Management.
In addition, GFOA has added investment policy checklists for defined benefit plans and deferred compensation plans. These checklists can be used to compare against a government’s existing policies to determine if it needs to update those policies or to develop new policies. These documents were created by the GFOA Committee on Retirement and Benefits Administration.
All documentation can be downloaded from GFOA's Web site at no cost.
GFOA Treasury Training Scheduled for Fall
GFOA has scheduled three courses for state and local government treasurers this fall. On October 17-18 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, GFOA will offer the course Treasury Management and Cash Flow Forecasting to be immediately followed by Investing Public Funds on October 19-20. In the following month, GFOA will offer Banking Relations in Chicago, Illinois, on November 18. The latter course focuses on procurement and oversight of banking and depository services.
Instructors for the banking seminar include the two past chairmen of the GFOA Committee on Cash Management, Stan Helgerson, finance director, Village of Carol Stream, Illinois, and Joseph Casey, deputy county administrator, Hanover County, Virginia, as well as James Beasley, president of J.F. Beasley & Co., Inc.
Investing Public Funds will be taught by Ned Connolly, vice president of Chandler Asset Management, and Corinne Larson, vice president of MBIA Asset Management Group, both experienced GFOA instructors. Connolly will also lead the Treasury Management and Cash Flow Forecasting course.
Panel of Economists
When Will the Fed Stop?
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee recently raised the Fed Funds rate for the 10th time. This month, Public Investor asked its panel of economists when and at what level the Fed will stop raising rates in the current tightening cycle. We also asked the panel if the Fed is near the point of raising rates too far and causing an economic slowdown.
Peter Kretzmer expects that the Fed will continue to raise the Fed Funds rate until it hits 4.5 percent at its meeting in February 2006. He predicts that a rate of 5.0 percent will cause the economy to start to slow.
John Silvia states that the Fed will stop raising rates when the inflation benchmark stays stable for three months. He expects that the Fed will stop at 4.75 percent in the spring of next year.
Carl Tannenbaum predicts that the Fed Funds rate will peak at 4.5 percent early next year. He does not think the Fed is in danger of tightening too far.
According to Lacy Hunt, Fed policy is far more restrictive than is generally recognized. He notes that the monetary and reserve aggregates and the shape of the yield curve indicate that monetary restraint is significant. For example, M2 has increased only 3.6 percent over the past twelve months, which is far below the 6.7 percent average since 1900. In addition, total reserves contracted by more than 6 percent in the last 12 months. Hunt points out that a contraction in monetary growth in the face of surging oil prices has often resulted in a depletion of savings and a weaker economy. In fact, the personal saving rate has dropped to zero.
RGM
Databank Analysis
Forecasters See Benign Inflation?
The most recent Survey of Professional Forecasters, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, predicts that real GDP will average 3.7 percent in 2005 and 3.4 percent in 2006.
The consumer price index increased 0.5 percent in July, fueled mostly by rising energy prices. However, inflation forecasts suggest that the recent in-crease in inflation may be temporary.
Looking forward, the Survey of Professional Forecasters predicts that CPI inflation will decline to 2.4 percent in 2006. The spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) is around 2.4 percent, suggesting that the financial markets expect inflation to average around 2.4 percent over the next 10 years.
RGM
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Current
Period |
Previous
Period |
Year
Ago |
| Economic Growth |
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| Real GDP growth |
II Q '05 |
I Q '05 |
Year Ago |
| Annual rate, constant dollars |
3.4 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
Retail sales |
July |
June |
Year Ago |
| $ billions |
357.01 |
350.80 |
323.60 |
| Industrial production index |
July |
June |
12 mo. chg. |
| Change, monthly and annually |
0.1% |
0.8% |
3.0% |
| Leading indicators index |
July |
June |
6 mo. chg. |
| Change, monthly and annually |
0.4% |
0.9% |
1.1% |
| New housing starts |
July |
June |
Year Ago |
| Thousands of units, annualized |
2,042 |
2,045 |
1,986 |
| Purchasing Management Index |
July |
June |
Year Ago |
| Nati'l. Assoc. of Purchasing Management |
56.6 |
53.8 |
61.6 |
| Inflation |
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Consumer price index |
July |
June |
12 mo. chg. |
| Change, monthly and annually |
0.5% |
0.0% |
3.1% |
Producer price index |
July |
June |
12 mo. chg. |
Change, monthly and annually, seasonally adjusted |
1.0 |
0.0 |
4.6 |
| GDP price deflator |
II Q '05 |
I Q '05 |
Year Ago |
| Annual rate |
2.4 |
3.1 |
3.9 |
| Unemployment rate |
July |
June |
Year Ago |
| BLS |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.5 |
| Other |
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| Money market fund maturities |
Aug 16 |
July 12 |
Aug '04 |
Average portfolio maturity
(Money Fund Report Averages TM) |
36 days |
37 days |
43 days |
Interest Rate Analysis
Fed Funds Rate Approaching 4 Percent
At its most recent meeting on August 9, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to raise the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50 percent. Thus far, the Fed has raised the Fed Funds rate 250 basis points since it began tightening last year. In its policy statement, the Fed stated that core inflation has been “relatively low” and long-term inflation expectations remain “well contained.”
The most recent Survey of Professional Forecasters, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, predicts that the three-month Treasury bill will increase to an average rate of 3.9 percent by the fourth quarter of 2005, and 4.3 percent by the third quarter of 2006. The forecasters predict that the 10-year Treasury bond will increase to an average rate of 4.6 percent by the fourth quarter of 2005, and 5.0 percent by the third quarter of 2006.
RGM
| The Public Investor's panel of eminent institutional economists projects interest rates for the first day of each forecast month. Averages are the midpoints between the arithmetic mean and the median of individual projections. The low and high individual forecasts illustrate the range. |
| Rate |
October-05
Average
(Low-High) |
December-05
Average
(Low-High) |
March-06
Average
(Low-High) |
| Fed Funds |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
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3 3/4 - 3 3/4 |
4 - 4 |
4 1/4 - 4 1/2 |
| 30-day prime bank (CD) |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.4 |
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3 3/4 - 3 7/8 |
4 - 4 1/8 |
4 3/8 - 4 3/8 |
| 3-month T-bill yield |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
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3 3/4 - 4 |
3 7/8 - 4 1/4 |
4 3/8 - 4 5/8 |
| 5-year Treasury note |
4.3 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
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4 1/8 - 4 3/8 |
4 3/8 - 4 5/8 |
4 5/8 - 4 7/8 |
| 30-year Treasury bond |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
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4 1/2 - 54 7/8 |
4 3/4 - 5 1/8 |
4 3/4 - 5 3/8 |
| Consensus Index* |
100% |
100% |
100% |
| *Consensus index is the percentage of responses within 75 basis points (0.75 percent) of the average interest rate. Index measures the extent of panelists' agreement. If all forecasts are with 3/4 percent of the various averages for a given month, the consensus would be 100. If all responses fall at the extreme ends of a wide range, the index is 0. |
Interest rate forecast panelists
| Peter E. Kretzmer |
Banc of America Securities, LLC |
| John Silvia |
Wachovia Securities |
Carl R. Tannenbaum |
LaSalle Bank ABN/Amro |
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Performance Benchmarks |
Public Investor Performance Indexes |
| The Public Investor 10-bill index |
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Quarterly/Monthly
Return
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Annualized Returns Since |
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Index |
Annualized |
Jan.1, 2004 |
Jan. 1, 2003 |
| Jan. 1, 2004 |
276.6328 |
1.0% (M)
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1.1% |
1.4% |
| Jan. 1, 2005 |
280.0364 |
1.9% (Q) |
1.2% |
1.2% |
| Aug. 1, 2005 |
283.9249r |
2.8%(M)r |
1.7% |
1.4% |
| Sept. 1, 2005 |
284.7293 |
3.5%(M) |
1.7% |
1.5% |
| The Public Investor 10-bill index consists of 10 hypothetical Treasury bill investments, with an average maturity of approximately 80 days. Every other Thursday, a T-bill matures and proceeds are reinvested alternately in the three-month and six month T-bills. This rolling index provides a benchmark for evaluating cash management portfolios with biweekly payment and payroll requirements. The original value of the index was 97.6765 on July 1, 1984. |
| The money market fund index |
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Average Return |
Jan. 1, 2004 |
Jan. 1, 2003 |
| Jan. 1, 2004 |
0.5% |
0.67% |
1.61% |
| Jan. 1, 2005 |
1.5% |
0.76% |
0.82% |
| Aug. 1, 2005 |
2.6% |
1.23% |
0.98% |
| Sept. 1, 2005 |
2.8% |
1.31% |
1.01% |
| The money market fund index is the simple average of Money Fund Report Averages ™ seven-day money market fund indexes, as reported for the two weeks closest to the end of each month. The annualized return is calculated using these rates for a four-week period centering on the first of each month. The results should simulate returns from passive investment in an average money market fund. |
S&P Rated LGIP Index (August 19, 2005) |
7-day yield |
30-day yield |
Maturity (days) |
3.25% |
3.13% |
30 |
| This index is comprised of local government investment pools that are rated AAAm or AAm by Standard & Poor's and represents pools that strive to maintain a stable net asset value. |
| Rate |
8/26/05 |
Year Ago |
| Fed funds |
3.55 |
1.52 |
| CDs: Three months |
3.81 |
1.70 |
| CDs: Six months |
4.02 |
1.90 |
| BAs: One month |
3.62 |
1.57 |
| T-bills: 91-day yield |
3.46 |
1.52 |
| T-bills: 52-week yield |
3.87 |
2.02 |
| 2Commercial paper, dealer-placed, 3 months |
3.60 |
1.70 |
| Bond Buyer 20-bond municipal index |
4.25 |
4.66 |
| Tax-exempt notes |
2.96 |
1.56 |
| 6-Month Treasury Bill |

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| 2-Year Treasury Note |

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| 30-Year Treasury Bond |

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| Public Investor’s four-week moving averages are calculated as a simple average of Friday closing yield quotations for the most recently offered six-month Treasury bill (discount basis), two-year Treasury note, and 30-year Treasury bond. Moving averages are used by analysts to monitor trends and trend changes. Generally, interest rates are increasing (prices falling) when the moving average yield is rising and the current rate exceeds the moving average. Conversely, current yields below a declining moving average are associated with lower interest rates (high prices on fixed-income securities). Some market timers buy (or sell) longer maturities when current market yields fall below (or penetrate above) their moving averages. |
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